Autonomous Trucking — Fiction or Reality?

It is the stuff of science fiction: a highway splits a vast expanse of the plains — no cars or buildings anywhere in sight. From just before the horizon, headlights flicker then grow brighter as a faint rumble builds into the whining roar of turbo diesel engines winding up, shifting down and accelerating again. Three, four, five and then six massive 18-wheel semi tractor-trailers running in a single file—a ‘platoon,’ separated by only a few feet — careen down the road at more than 65 miles per hour with no drivers in any of the cabs.

But a large part of this is not fiction. It is an early look at what is in store for the trucking industry. In fact, the debate is no longer centered around “if” autonomous trucking will happen; it is just a matter of when this will happen.

Two-truck platooning technology has already developed. Although today it requires a driver behind the wheel, predictions show the technology is paving the way for more advanced autonomous systems with less driver involvement in the next 15 to 20 years.

What is driving the transportation industry to develop autonomous technology in the near future? Three things: gas and labor make long haul transport inefficient; trucking is facing a critical shortage of drivers; and middlemen are driving up costs for companies that need to move large inventories long distances.

People and Fuel

Like most service industries, a big cost center is labor. Trucks are dependent on people to get them safely from point A to point B and back again. But people are notoriously inefficient. Truck drivers have to sleep, take government-mandated rest breaks when they’re not tired, and even the best drivers still sometimes get into accidents.

Diesel fuel is another pain point. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) reported the trucking industry consumed 54.3 billion gallons of diesel fuel and gasoline in 2015. This cost motor carriers about $142.9 billion in 2015 alone.

In 2015, Morgan Stanley compiled a report that conservatively estimated the potential labor and fuel savings generated by autonomous trucks at $168 billion a year. The savings breakdown was $70 billion in labor, $35 billion in fuel efficiency, $27 billion in productivity savings, and $36 billion in reclaimed miscellaneous dollars.

Diminishing Workforce

In the United States, trucks are responsible for moving more than 10 billion tons of goods in 2015 — that is roughly 70 percent of all goods shipped anywhere in the country. But, looking into the future there are not enough drivers to maintain these hauls. The current driver shortage is in the 48,000 range. If trends remain the same, that number will grow to 175,000 or more by 2024.

The potential savings derived by autonomous trucking technologies are substantial in fuel, labor and even lives. The Eno Center for Transportation predicted that autonomous trucks would save $447 billion annually by preventing 4.2 million crashes.

Take the Middlemen Out of the Middle

Trucking and logistics can realize large savings by cutting out the middlemen who broker available trucks and drivers to available loads. Entire companies exist for the sole purpose of making these matches — typically 15 percent per load — a result of the looming shortage of drivers. This is good news for brokers but bad news for companies that ship goods.

As is typically the case, technology has stepped in and created an “app for that” problem. Amazon, already famous for automating much of the activity in its massive fulfillment centers, is on the leading edge of solving the transportation logistics problem.

In its most recent earnings report, Amazon noted its shipping costs had risen 43 percent versus the same period last year. Amazon relies heavily on UPS, FedEx and the USPS, while also running its own aircraft and trucks. But middlemen, who match drivers and shipments, still take a big cut of Amazon’s profits.

To address this, Amazon has taken a first step and created an Uber-like app to do the work of brokers, matching available trucks with open shipments. This tackles some of the driver deficit problem, but it’s only a stopgap, not the last stop.

That would be autonomous trucks. The most efficient way for Amazon to run its logistics operation may be to eliminate drivers entirely.

When it comes to technology, Jeff Bezos has been turning heads. He is already driving the seemingly impossible commercial drone industry’s package delivery potential. Comparatively speaking, driverless trucks and drones are very different. In some cases, drones are a simpler problem to solve when delivering packages since they do not have roads and highways to navigate. But they do have weight limits that a commercial motor vehicle can resolve.

Through cutting back on fuel, battling the driver shortage and reducing brokers, autonomous trucks are making their way into the mainstream.